Projections

Ghana · 5-year forward simulation · 2025–2030 · ILO trend extension + Wittgenstein attainment + cohort dynamics

Horizon

2025–2030

5-year window

Cohort by 2030

184k

baseline scenario

Demand index 2030

112

100 = 2025

Scenarios

base · accel · shock

Scenario

Current policy mix, no shocks. ILO trend extension.

Cohort by 2030

184k

0k vs base

Placements by 2030

71k

0k vs base

Demand index 2030

112

0pts vs base

Confidence band

± 6%

0model error

Supply × demand trajectory

Cumulative cohort (left axis, k profiles) vs weighted demand index (right axis, 100 = 2025). Active scenario shown with ±6% band.

Supply (active)Demand (active)Other scenarios

2026 · Accel.

TVET reform vote

Pending bill scales certification across 14 regions.

2027 · all scenarios

Digital demand cross-over

ICT cluster overtakes trades in absolute openings.

2028 · Shock

Automation tipping point

Routine clerical roles drop below 60% of 2025 level.

2030 · Accel.

Tertiary attainment 40%+

Achievable only under accelerated scenario.

Cluster gap matrix · 2030

Demand index (100 = 2025) and net cohort gap under baseline. Negative = shortage.


Green & Climate Adaptation jobs concentrated in coastal regions.	122	-2,400
Digital & ICT Fastest demand growth; supply struggles to keep pace.	124	-1,800
Care & Health Demographic tailwind; female-skewed pipeline.	118	-1,200
Hospitality & Tourism Tourism upside; shock-sensitive on global travel.	112	-800
Logistics Port-led; vulnerable to automation in handling.	110	-600
Trades & Construction Cyclical; tied to public infrastructure cadence.	108	-300
Creative & Media Generative AI compresses entry-level demand.	106	+200
Agriculture & Agri-tech Climate volatility creates two divergent paths.	104	+400

Attainment trajectory

Education mix evolution under baseline.

202528% tertiary

None 18%Secondary 54%Tertiary 28%

202729% tertiary

None 16%Secondary 55%Tertiary 29%

203032% tertiary

None 13%Secondary 55%Tertiary 32%

TertiarySecondaryNo formal